Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Jets come in as the "hotter" team and they're also playing at home. I believe that the Flyers are the "stronger" team though and I expect them to also be the more motivated one this evening. First, let's look at the price - which is essentially in the "pick'em" range. (Or, at least close enough.) The Flyers were -200, -185 and -155 (for the game here at Winnipeg) in this season's three previous meetings. I feel tonight's much lower price is providing excellent line value. Both teams need points. However, the Flyers are off a 6-4 loss and have had a tough February. Throw in the fact that they're playing to avoid the season sweep, having lost all three games in this series so far, and this team should be extremely hungry. Note that Philadelphia, 18-11 (+5.5) on the road, should be bolstered by some recent trades. Also, the fact that the Flyers haven't played since Saturday is significant. They're 19-10 the past few seasons, when playing with two day's rest in between games. That includes an impressive 5-1 (+3.9) mark this season. The Jets, 1-3 after winning their previous three games, are a poor 5-9 (-4.3) after a win by two or more goals. Despite their success against the Flyers this season, the Jets are still below .500 against winning teams. Facing Philadelphia's "A-Game," I expect them to stumble here. *9

Reason: I'm playing on Detroit and Cleveland to finish OVER the total. The Cavaliers enter this evening's action on an "under" streak. I expect it to come to an end here. Unlike their hosts, the Pistons have been a profitable "over" team. Even with their most recent game falling below the total, they've still seen 11 of their last 15 games, including three of their last four, finish above the number. True, the Pistons are off an excellent defensive effort last time out. (They won 96-81.) That was against a low-scoring and defensive minded Boston team though. Cleveland scores considerably more AND allows significantly more points than does Boston. Its also worth mentioning that the Pistons rarely follow up a dominant defensive effort with another one. They've now allowed 85 or fewer points four times in 2012. After doing so the previous three times, they allowed 99, 99 and 87 points. All three of those games finished above the total. In fact, if we look further we find that the OVER is a profitable 11-2 (85%) the last 13 times that the Pistons allowed 85 points or less in their previous game. Despite a number of their recent games finishing below the total, Cleveland's last five games are still averaging 195.2 points. Note that the Cavs allowed more than 110 points in two of those games. They've scored at least 90 in eight of their last 10 games. For the season, their divisional games are averaging 196.4 points. This season's lone meeting finished above the total with 194 combined points. The previous four in the series finished with 211, 188, 197 and 194. I expect another relatively high-scoring affair. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MONTREAL. Both teams desperately need points right now. Montreal needs them even more than Dallas though. As Montreal defenseman Josh Gorges noted: "We don’t have the luxury - and I’ve said this before - of taking a night off, a period off or a shift off. We don’t have that because every game is maybe the difference of getting in or us going home early." Admittedly, the Canadiens have not played well on home ice this season. The Stars haven't been good on the road either though and have lost six of their last eight away from Dallas. The Canadiens have won five of their last eight. Prior to a 3-1 loss last time out, they'd scored at least three goals in seven straight games, averaging 3.6 goals during that stretch. On the other hand, the Stars have scored two goals or less in 14 of their last 17 games. The Canadiens have only hosted the Stars twice in recent seasons, once in 2006 and once in 2010. Both those games resulted in multi-goal Montreal victories. The Canadiens are playing better hockey right now and I look for them to get it done again here. *9

Reason: I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Spurs handed me a tough loss at Utah last night. Laying -3, they rallied for a 4-point win. They're at an even tougher venue against an even better team tonight though. They've been "living on the edge" recently and I expect their winning streak to come to an end here. The Blazers fell behind early at LA last night and lost 103-92 vs. the Lakers. They're much better at home though and they're already 2-1 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss. They've also dominated the Spurs here in recent seasons. I expect them to bounce back in a big way tonight. While they have come up just short in that situation a couple of times lately, note that the Blazers are still an outstanding 31-20-1 ATS (31-21 SU) the past few seasons, when playing the second of back to back games. Its also worth noting that they've already 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range this season. While the Blazers are 15-5 the last 20 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range, the Spurs are a poor 7-14 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the same range. Its been a great road trip already for the Spurs, who will still be without Ginobili here. However, this is now their eighth stop on that trip and I expect them to be getting road weary. Any type of fatigue figures to be very costly against a Portland team which has already defeated the likes of OKC and the Lakers. The Blazers, who are playing with "revenge" from a 1/13 loss at San Antonio, are a perfect 6-0 the last six times that they were a host in this series. They're also 7-5 ATS the last dozen times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion as the Spurs winning streak comes to a crashing halt. *10

Reason: I'm playing on Vancouver and Nashville to finish UNDER the total. These teams have played 10 straight meetings which had an O/U line of five. Tonight, the line is set at 5.5. Although we do have to lay some extra juice to get that 5.5 line, I feel that's providing us with very fair value. Most Nashville home games do have an O/U line of five. When the line has been 5.5 here, the UNDER is a profitable 8-3. While they're off a high-scoring game last time out, the Canucks have still seen three of five games finish with five or fewer goals. Meanwhile, the Preds have seen three straight finish with five or less. For the season, the Preds have seen the UNDER go 18-9-6 against teams with a winning record. Twenty-four of those 33 games finished with five or fewer combined goals and I feel tonight's game has an excellent shot at doing the same. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NC STATE. Obviously, the Tar Heels are a talented and dangerous team. I expect them to have their hands full tonight though. While the Tar Heels are certainly capable of blowing out any team, on any given night, this typically isn't one of their best roles. They're only 7-10 ATS the last 17 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Tar Heels really haven't played many games off their home court in recent months. In fact, they've only played six games away from home (5 road games, 1 neutral) since 11/26. Three of those resulted in outright losses and two of them were single-digit wins. During that stretch, the only team they beat by double-digits on the road was Wake Forest and they didn't even cover the spread in that one. (Laying -16.5, they won by 15.) Perhaps looking ahead to this big game, the Wolfpack didn't play well vs. Florida State on Saturday. They nearly won at Duke before that though, losing by only five. Prior to that, they'd won three straight. Note that the loss vs. Duke was NC State's fourth loss by seven or fewer points. They lost a neutral court game by seven vs. Vanderbilt, lost by four at Stanford and by one vs. Virginia. So, not only could the record easily be better but the points could easily come into play here. Off Saturday's loss NC State coach Mark Gottfried had this to say: "We have to accept the fact that if you want to play in the greatest show on Earth, then you better toughen up and you better man up, pal. There is no other way to look at it. Teams that get to play in March are mentally tough enough to withstand most things, and they fight their way through it. … We're not there, and we've got to get there." The Wolfpack, who are playing with "revenge" and who are absolutely desperate for a "signature win," haven't lost three straight all season. I expect them to rise to the occasion and give their guests all they can handle. *10